When can we go to the movies again?
A hypothesis for when and how Australia’s leisure industry will reopen
It’s the million dollar question — when will things return to normal? It’s been well-documented over the past week or so that Australia has done a fairly good job of flattening the COVID-19 curve, with all states and territories reporting a marked drop in new cases. However, it’s called the novel coronavirus for a reason — it’s new and unprecedented, so there is little to no certainty about what the future holds. Premier Andrews announced the state of emergency in Victoria will be extended until at least May 11, meaning strict enforcement of social distancing and isolation measures remain in place to slow the spread of the virus. We also know that winter has been identified as a particularly dangerous time for the combination of the flu and COVID-19 so we don’t expect significant changes in the next couple of months. However, before we forecast the ‘when’, it’s important to consider the ‘how’, because the future of leisure will look different from the way we knew it.
The leisure industry (Recreation, Entertainment, Sports, Tourism) is considered non-essential and is likely to open in a staggered approach but with social distancing considerations. Ideally, the goal is to strike the right balance between flattening the curve and easing discontent and economic damage. The most likely strategy will mirror what both Singapore and Hong Kong are pursuing, which is a “suppress and lift” approach — relaxing measures when it’s possible, then tightening restrictions when infections climb back up. This will be completely experimental and incremental; that is, a trial and error approach. If a few venues open and the number of cases increases they will swiftly close again.
Below we will explore what factors may help the leisure industry to reopen more quickly.
Recreation key point: Businesses are more likely to open earlier if they can remain profitable with a lower number of customers than usual and can afford extra staff for sanitisation and security.
Recreation is a broad category so we’ll start with looking at two large sub-industries: fitness and cinemas.
Fitness Australia, the peak industry body that represents gyms and fitness centres in Australia is lobbying federal and state governments to consider the sector as an ‘essential service,’ arguing that they are beneficial to our mental and physical wellbeing. Coronavirus is mostly spread through direct contract with respiratory droplets which are released when you sneeze and cough. It’s less likely (although still possible) to contract coronavirus by touching a contaminated surface. However, COVID-19 survives on stainless steel for up to 72 hours, making gyms and their equipment potent virus spreaders. This means that we will likely need to change fitness centre operations, perhaps by hiring extra staff to sanitise equipment and screen guests for potential illnesses before entering.
Like most non-essential businesses in Australia, the movie industry was closed in mid-March because of the coronavirus pandemic, leaving the all-too-common financial problems that come with closing up for an indeterminate amount of time. Since then, most of the biggest movies planned for August through June have all been postponed to 2021, which means that production studios are planning for mass gatherings by 2021. There is likely to be an interim stage, such as mandatory distancing of 1.5m, or leaving two empty seats between every visitor. This means that cinemas, concerts and other major performances will need to be profitable with a significantly lower number of visitors, either by raising ticket prices (perhaps for the first two weeks of a new release) or managing costs well enough to take the revenue cut. However, recklessly throwing open the doors before it’s prudent could have even more long-term damage to the movie business than a prolonged closure. Until production studios think they can get the big bucks again we may be watching ‘When Harry Met Sally’ in cinemas, but who doesn’t mind the occasional blast of nostalgia? Isn’t that what we’re all doing in our isolation with Disney+?
Entertainment and Sports key point: If you hear someone planning for a large-scale event to take place over the next twelve months, tell ’em they’re dreamin’!
Large-scale events like concerts as we know them won’t be an option again until we have a vaccine and even then, there may be a level of social stigma around attending. Zeke Emanuel, a bioethicist and the director of the Healthcare Transformation Institute at the University of Pennsylvania was part of an expert panel assembled by the New York Times on life after the COVID-19 pandemic. He says concert tours may not take place in America until fall (autumn) next year, which is September since we’re talking northern hemisphere.
“Yes, restarting the economy has to be done in stages, and it does have to start with more physical distancing at a work site that allows people who are at lower risk to come back,” Emanuel explains, urging Americans to be realistic about how and when their lives will be reset. “Larger gatherings — conferences, concerts, sporting events — when people say they’re going to reschedule this conference or graduation event for October 2020, I have no idea how they think that’s a plausible possibility.
“I think those things will be the last to return. Realistically we’re talking fall 2021 at the earliest.” Emmanuel goes on to say that we’re likely to see a “rollercoaster” of COVID-19 cases rising and falling when countries open up and allow more activity. The problem, according to Emanuel, is “You can’t just flip a switch and open the whole of society up. It’s just not going to work. It’s too much. The virus will definitely flare back to the worst levels. As he sees it, “restarting the economy has to be done in stages,” and crowded events will be the last part of our old lives to return. He said.
We see a spectrum of optimism across different sports. Super Rugby is shut down indefinitely while the NRL has announced plans to return on May 28 and has mapped out a strategy to “fulfil its contractual obligations” to broadcasters by playing the remaining 22 rounds and finishing the season in November. The AFL has so far taken a cautious approach and hasn’t set a resumption date, saying it will be guided by government measures. One thing all sporting teams have in common is limited travel, even if they were willing to face extreme measures of quarantine. It’s likely that we’ll see more games played with empty spectator stands (hopefully they add a crowd cheer track this time) and perhaps other forms of creativity. This could mean more opportunities for junior athletes as local restrictions are loosened and Australians flock to local neighbourhood games to fulfill their sports cravings.
Tourism key point: To open sooner, businesses will have to shift to domestic tourism and target locals for ‘stay-cations’ and repeat visits by few instead of single visits by many.
Federal tourism minister Simon Birmingham has warned holidaymakers to avoid booking any international travel during the coronavirus crisis, saying Australians are unlikely to be allowed to fly overseas until at least January 2021. He is instead encouraging us to think about planning a holiday within Australia which could provide a much-needed boost to the embattled local tourism industry. Until state borders reopen this could mean that we need to look at ‘travel’ differently and consider some of the options closer to home. Many of us have a local attraction that we haven’t taken the time to visit yet (mine is the Puffing Billy in the Dandenong Ranges), and some businesses may consider rebranding themselves for the local market instead of the international market. Similar to ‘entertainment’, this industry will likely partly reopen, primarily by those who can afford to have a smaller or different customer base and can manage hygiene easily. I like to daydream but I am struggling to imagine what the pandemic-proof theme park could look like.
Across the globe the per cent of people planning a post-pandemic holiday has increased since the last survey in March (image below).
When asked what they intended to spend on other than necessities once the virus passed, 42 per cent of surveyed Australians said they planned to book domestic holidays and 23 per cent were going to spend on out-of-home entertainment such as cinema or theatre tickets (responders could select multiple options).
So, when can we go out again?
Clearly there are a lot of factors that will influence when and whether the leisure industry will get back to normal. However, based on the details above, here is our ‘best guess’ for the future of leisure:
By July 2020: The first wave of businesses to reopen will be those that can satisfy hygiene requirements without making major changes to their current business model, such as museums, tours, outdoor excursions and fitness companies that are outdoor or have BYO equipment. We have forecasted July because many articles have suggested anxiety around the strain on hospitals spiking in the winter due to flu season, so it may be helpful to have June data before proceeding. The specific requirements could look something like this:
- Social distancing rules, such as space markings (like we see for supermarket lineups today) and/or maximum capacity rules
- Only offering services that do not involve physical touching of any object (such as weights or seats or tickets), or have extra staff to sanitise between customers
This will only be possible for the businesses that can afford to have fewer customers than normal and can afford the extra changes necessary; many businesses may choose to remain closed to avoid the extra costs of opening to few customers.
By October 2020: The second wave will be a combination of two types of businesses — those that have had time to adapt to requirements, and those who are eligible under a new potential requirement: the segregation of those who have had COVID-19 and those who have not. It’s very unlikely that a vaccine will be available this year, but we may have a more efficient way of testing. Since Australia is taking the ‘flatten the curve’ strategy, a very large portion of the population will eventually get infected, after which they will not have to worry about catching the COVID again (while it hasn’t been proved that having COVID-19 once generally leads to immunity, I am working off this assumption because the alternative would change everything about how we reopen). This means it’s not too crazy of an idea that the leisure industry will be able to open certain locations or socially distanced ‘sections’ separately for those who have already been infected. Just replace “smoking or non-smoking” with “infected or non-infected”.
By February 2021: After almost a year of “suppress and lift” many agree that we’ll be well-positioned to start opening up to mass gatherings and start to see things shift back towards our past perception of ‘‘normal’. As mentioned, even production studios are banking on offering showtimes in 2021. Of course, the public will have new expectations and hesitations as we’ve grown more hygiene-conscious, and it’s unlikely that international borders will be free-flowing again until there’s been a vaccine so things won’t be exactly the same. This is likely to be the time for Australians to experience Australia as we see people get their social and experiential fixes through domestic tourism and events.
By December 2021: Many forecasts suggest that a vaccine could be ready by late 2021 which could open up international travel for Christmas next year, as well as major events such as concerts and sports. While we may have a glimmer of travel before this, the travel approval process will likely be rigorous and expensive enough that only the minority will be able to participate.
While this may sound like a grim outlook we are already seeing so many resilience stories of individuals and businesses adjusting to ‘new norms’ so it’s likely there will be more opportunities to have some fun shaping the new world. I acknowledge these forecasts are on the conservative side and the leisure industry may spark back up sooner. Any loosening of rules will be highly dependent on the successful containment of COVID-19, so anyone who wants to see them loosened sooner can do the the right thing and #stayhome for now.
This piece was co-created by Ami Price-Gagnon and Zoe Tamiakis from Ento.
